Statistical Improbabilities in Texas Hold'em

I played the $1-$2 last night at Winstar and lost my first $200 in my first 10 hands at the table.  My first big loss was with the AK of hearts in the hole (the 5th best starting hand in poker).  The flop was A Q 6 (2 clubs).  I get heads up with a guy that I figure likely was holding KQ or maybe even a flush draw.  He also could have AQ which seemed like the only hand that could beat me based on probabilities.  So, he went all-in and I called.  I had an Ace.  The board had an Ace.  He had Pocket Aces for a set on the flop.  It was so improbable that he would have Pocket Aces that I never considered it as a threat.

5 hands later I got pocket cowboys and decided not to see a flop, so I pushed all in pre-flop with my remaining $55.  I got called by another guy who was holding, of all things, pocket aces.  I lost with very strong hands twice in 10 hands to pocket aces.  That is a statistical improbability.

So, I re-loaded with another $100 and moved to center position at the table, directly across from the dealer.  That $100 played for the next 3 hours and I was up and down throughout the night until at one point, I was sitting at just over $50 and ready for a double-up.  I was dealt 9-10 and got to see a cheap flop that was 9-10-2, with 2 diamonds.  So, with top 2 pair and a possible flush draw, I pushed all in.  I didn't need to see the flush.  Everyone folded except for one fish who liked his 2 small diamonds and didn't know about the "rule of 4".  He called and the river was a diamond.  He had the 6 and the 8 and the river was. . . wait for it. . . the 7 of diamonds - he hit the straight-flush on the river - the most statistically improbable hand in poker.  And I was out again.

But I wasn't mad.  I wasn't on tilt.  Everyone suffers from bad luck from time to time.  I played strong and solid all night and lost some very big hands to the most statistically unlikely hands imaginable.  It was actually funny.  So, what did I do?  I found an ATM and a new table.

I played one more $100 stack and found the table with the largest stacks in the room.  One guy had about $1,200 in front of him and a couple of others had more than $500.  The table was loose and despite my bad beats, I felt like I was playing hot.  So, I sat down.

Unbelievably, I mixed it up with Mr. $1,200 2 hands in a row very early on.  The first time, I had AJ suited and pushed all in with a flush draw.  He had pocket K's and I was in trouble until I hit my magic Ace on the river.  So, I was back.  THE VERY NEXT HAND, I had K 10 and a K came on the flop.  The same guy had pocket K's again!  Back-to-back pocket K's!  Statistically improbable, and at that point, completely hilarious.  He got half of my stack with that hand.

Within the next half an hour I was dealt pocket A's (about time) and the house had an "Aces Cracked" thing running where if you lose with pocket Aces, the house pays you $100.  So, I slow played and ended up heads up with a guy who had KJ and a Jack on the flop.  I was way ahead until the river card came and it was another Jack.  I found out a few seconds later that another guy at the table folded a Jack.  That means that he hit the only jack left in the deck.  I lost the hand, but got the house's $100. 

30 minutes later, I had $218 in front of me and had to quit (but didn't really want to).   I was playing good all night long, but just taking some really bad, statistically-improbable beats.  I doubled my last $100 inside of an hour and felt like I could have gone on doing that for the rest of the night against these guys.  But, now I'll never know for sure.

2 weeks ago, I tripled up at these same tables.  I'm still up $200 in my last 2 trips up there despite the crazy night I had last night.  I guess these swings are going to happen, but if it's going to take the most statistically unlikely hands to beat me, I'll take them.

But like I said last time, "results not typical".  True.

Crazy Night on Full Tilt Poker

I've been playing around with $100 on Full Tilt Poker this week.  For the most part, I would say I've been up and down and with some huge swings.  Admittedly, I've been playing .10 / .25 tables, but my online cash game abilities need some work before I put in a lot of money.

I started the night being down 50% with just $50 of my original $100 remaining.  So, I decided to play 2 tables simultaneously ($25 each).  Everything was going along pretty well until I went all in with 2 pairs AQ on one table and lost to a sick set of 10's.  Didn't see that coming!

So, I was down to 1 table and by this time, just about $14 or $15 remaining.  30 minutes later, all hell broke lose and I was up over $75.  In 5 hands, I hit a full house and 2 Straight Flushes that were both 9 thru K.

As you can see, the 2nd was even on the flop and I only won .57 cents.  The 1st was the best because my opponent hit a full house and he called my all-in bet.

When I hit the full house, I actually picked up a set of 4's on the flop and then the board paired.  With that set, I had it all the way, but the guy I beat for quite a bit of money completely went on tilt.  This is him:

He made such as special (although completely ineffective) effort to piss me off and get me off of my game for the next 10 minutes that I thought I should memorialize him here.  At this point, half of the money I was playing with came from him anyways, so how could I be upset at him for being a total jerk afterwards.  It's safe to say that HE didn't see THAT coming either.

Anyways, I finished with $74 for the night and now I'm only down $26 for the week.  What a crazy night!

Texas Holdem: Chasing the River

I am generally against what I call "chasing the river".  This happens when someone has a straight-draw, inside-straight-draw, flush draw, and even and open-ended straight-draw, and keeps calling bets all the way to the river card.  The odds just aren't usually there, but people do it all the time.  You're sitting there with just the river card to go and you need one card to make your straight - let's say you need a 10.  There are only four 10's in a deck.  4 out of 52 cards is only 7.7%.  Another way to look at it is that by chasing a river 10, you have a 92.3% chance of missing, and maybe it's worse than that because someone else already folded a 10. 

Maybe your chasing a flush on the river.  In this case, you have 4 cards to a flush and you need just 1 more.  4 of the 13 cards of that suit are already accounted for, so just 9 possible cards remain that could help you make that flush.  9 out of 52 cards is 17.3%.  That means that you've got a 82.7% chance of missing your flush IF nobody else already folded cards of that same suit and IF your remaining opponents aren't holding any.  Those are big IF's. 

Maybe you have an open-ended straight-draw where you could make a straight with a card on either end of the 4 consecutive cards you already have (including the board).  Let's say you have 8, 9, 10, J.  In this case, you could make a straight with either a 7 or a Q.  So, you chase the river.  Your odds are going to be a little less than the flush draw above since there are 8 possible cards in the deck that cold make your straight.  8 out of 52 cards is 15.4% .  As long as some of those cards weren't already folded or someone else isn't still holding them, you have an 84.6% chance of missing.

When you hit your cards, your thrilled and your opponents cuss you, but usually you miss and you donate.  The odds just aren't in your favor to chase the river.  As with many other aspects of poker, there are exceptions to not chasing the river.  I'm not getting into those exceptions here.  For now, just understand that the odds are against you and your buddies at the table are going to cuss you when you hit.

Friday Night Poker - Quads, Quads, Quads

I play poker with 8 to 12 other guys every Friday night.  We play tournament style poker with low stakes of $10 per game, plus a $5 knockout.  I've never heard of a game that has gotten as many 4-of-a-kinds as ours has.  It seems to happen a couple of times each Friday.  This past Friday, Prescott got quad 3's and I got quad A's.  In fact, I've actually gotten quads lots of times.  I've had:

Quad A's 2 times
Quad J's once
Quad 8's (on the flop!)
Quad 2's once

And, that's all that I can remember, but at our table, there have probably been others.  As I mentioned in a previous post, I also got a Royal Flush (of clubs) twice in a single month.  Has that ever happened before to anyone else?  But, that's a little off-point.

On Friday, I had trip 6's and I knew I was up against a probable Ace high flush.  In a moment that I like to call "my stupid move of the night", I went all-in and got called by 2 players.  Honestly, I was blinded by the possibility of getting quads again (I said it was a stupid move).  On the outside, I knew I still had a chance at pairing another card on the board to get the "boat".  And you know what?  It happened.  I ended up with 6's and K's - a full house.  It was so freakin' lucky that I was actually embarrassed to have won the pot.  I knocked 2 guys out (including the Ace high flush - what a bad beat for him!) and won 2 $5 knockouts on my way to a decided game 2 victory.  My chip stack was so high that I was ashamed to keep winning. . . .

But at that point, it would have been an embarrassment to lose, so I won anyways.

What are the Odds of Getting a Royal Flush in Texas Holdem?

What exactly are the odds of getting a royal flush in Texas Holdem?  I read in several places that the odds are about 1 in 649,740.  So, that would mean that if you were to play 649,740 hands, you would get a Royal flush just once.  With those odds, my guess is that if you're reading this, you've probably never gotten a royal flush.

I play poker every Friday night with a group of guys.  Usually, there's anywhere from 7 to 10 guys that play.  I guess you can say that I've defied the odds when it comes to getting a Royal Flush because I've done it twice in the past month!  I'm no math whiz, but I'm guessing that nobody has figured out what the odds of hitting it twice in such a small window of time would be.  The first time I hit it, I stopped to take a picture with my cell phone (shown below).

As you can see, it's the 10 thru Ace of clubs.  So, are you ready for the really mind-blowing part of this story?  My 2nd Royal Flush was also the 10 thru Ace of Clubs.  I've been very lucky to say the least.

In the same game as my 1st Royal Flush, I flopped Quad 8's as well.  I can't make this stuff up.  Has anyone ever seen anything like this before because I think my luck has been 1 in 649,740,000,000,000.