God's Gift to Poker

I was playing on Full Tilt Poker tonight and there was this guy there that was criticizing the other players at the table.  Some people were making stupid bets and calls, but there was no money at stake, so what do you expect.  This guy came out swinging on the chat telling the table what bad players they were.  I looked over and I had more chips than he did and I just sat down at the table.  IDIOT! 

Anyways, it reminds me of the time I was at the Bellagio and the guy sitting to my left thought he was God's gift to poker.  Every time someone beat him, he was talking trash.  Every time he won, he was talking trash.  This guy must have thought that it was his God given right to win at poker.  I don't personally have that right so I have to work at it, but this guy was tuned in with God.  Lucky bastard!

If you're reading this, let me tell you the truth:  it is not your God given right to win every hand in poker.  I highly recommend that you play smart, play the odds, and know yourself and your opponents.  I mean seriously, do you really think you should win every hand?  The odds aren't in your favor for being a 100% winner.  Did you know that?

I love the comment, "keep playing like that and you won't win very much."  My thought is that if you keep thinking like that, neither will you.  Luck happens at a poker table.  Like it or not, you were not born to win in poker.  I know that's a big shock to you, but you should really consider your position as God's gifted poker champion.  I have news for you man:  you are going to get beat.  Then what? 

I sat next to this guy at the Bellagio and I enjoyed taking his chips from him.   Tonight at Full Tilt Poker, I felt the same, except there was no money involved.  If you're reading this, you are not God's gift to poker.  You were not born with a destiny to win every hand you play.  Sometimes you're going to lose.  My advice to you is simple and sound:  shut the hell up and keep your head in the game.   Everyone loses hands from time to time.  Stop believing your own hype.

If you're truly better than the other guys at the table, then play like it.  Understand the other players at the table.  Play accordingly.  Don't be a jerk.

Poker Momentum

In Poker, momentum can be a killer - to you or to your opponents.  It's hard to explain how you get momentum or how you keep it, but losing it seems so easy.  You win a hand.  Then, you win another and another until you're almost not even playing the cards in your hand as much as you're just playing the other players and reading their bets and other playing styles.  Sure, the cards dealt to you can cause your momentum, but keeping it often is completely independent of cards.  The other players may "sense" that you just keep somehow getting cards, so they fold.  Or, they start measuring the size of their hands compared to yours, and that makes them fold.  But, then you lose it.  You get out of rhythm or you don't notice the "zone" that you're in.  Maybe someone else starts picking up hands and you don't have enough good sense to fold a few and you lose too much to ever get momentum back.  Sometimes when you lose it, you have to get really patient, hang on, and wait for a really good hand, then get it back.  Then, wait for another really good hand.  Next thing you know, you're back on a role.  A huge chip stack can do wonders for momentum.  You have more to risk than other players have in front of them all together.  You might get called a bully, but when you're winning, it's OK.

Last night, I was watching the opening WSOP event of 2010 and it came down to 2 final players:  a Russian named Vladimir Shchemelev, who said in an interview that he never loses in poker and that Russians can win at anything if they just want to take it seriously, and an American named Michael "The Grinder" Mizrachi.  It started out really bad for Mizrachi.  He badly lost his momentum, one hand after another.  He just kept betting and raising and calling - with the worst hands, until finally he got a huge hand  (Ace high flush) and the Russian over-played his momentum right into an all-in bet that crippled his chip stack.  It was beautiful!  From there, "The Grinder" chipped away at his opponent until he won over $1 Million for first place.

Momentum was on display in a big way last night.  Mizrachi lost it.  The Russian over-played it.  Mizrachi got it back and finished with it. Momentum can be awesome, but it can be a killer.  Use it or lose it (or until you lose it).

My Son Aaron - Future WSOP Winner

I'm sitting here watching a re-run of the 2009 World Series of Poker final table with my 9 year-old son Aaron.  He's talking strategy and rooting for his favorite player, Phil Ivey.  It makes me think about how much my son likes poker and how good he is and how much better he's going to be. 

I walked into my living room a few months ago and he was at the coffee table with some poker chips and a deck of cards.  He was playing 8 hands of Texas Holdem by himself.  He was the dealer and all of the players, and he knew which hands were winning and which hands were folding.

I set him up to play online at one of the major online poker sites where he can play poker for fun (and for free).  You're supposed to be 18 to play on those sites, but I'm over 18 and I'm letting him play.  Usually, he gets on there, starts with $1,000 and ends with anywhere from $11,000 to over $30,000.  He's playing against adults and he's handing them their butts and making them say thank you.

One day, he was home sick from school and I stayed home with him. I just got finished watching the movie, "21" a couple of days earlier and I thought I would learn how to count cards in Blackjack.  I eventually figured it out, then I decided to teach Aaron to do it.  He has a huge brain and I wasn't surprised that he learned how to count cards in Blackjack in about 30 minutes.  After I taught him, he counted a whole deck of cards 5 times with zero errors.

Anyways, with all of that said, here we are watching the 2009 World Series of Poker and I asked him how much money he was going to win in Poker when he grows up.  His answer was, "$10 Million".  I believe him.

Top 10 Starting Hands in Texas Holdem

I researched this topic using Google and found 10 web sites with articles about the 10 Best Starting Hands in Texas Holdem.  You would think that the mathematical odds to this topic would determine what the 10 best hands are, but then you'd be wrong.

Everyone agrees on the best 3 starting hands:  AA, KK, QQ.  But that's about it.  Here's my breakdown of hands 4 thru 10.

4th Best Hand - 6 people said AK suited.  4 said JJ.

5th Best Hand - 4 said AQ suited.  4 AK suited.  2 JJ.

6th Best Hand - 4 said JJ.  3 10-10.  3 AQ suited.

7th Best Hand - 6 said KQ suited.  3 AQ suited.  1 said 10-10.

8th Best Hand - 8 said AJ suited.  2 said AK off suit.

HERE'S WHERE IT GETS REALLY GOOD.

9th Best Hand - 4 said AK off suit.  2 AJ suited.  3 KJ suited.  1 KQ suited.

10th Best Hand - 3 said AK off suit.  3 said 10-10, 1 said 9-9, 2 KQ suited.  1 A-10 suited.

So, with all of that, here is my Top 10 Starting Hands in Texas Holdem.

1.  AA
2.  KK
3.  QQ
4.  AK Suited
5.  JJ
6.  AQ Suited
7.  KQ Suited
8.  10-10
9.  AK Off Suit
10. AJ Suited

I also like:  KJ suited, A-10 suited, 9-9, but this is a Top 10 List.

WPT Hole Card Outcomes

I watched the final table of a recently televised World Poker Tour tournament that consisted of 6 final players.  I wanted to see how often the best starting hand won the pot.  The result was some fairly interesting outcomes.

I watched 38 hands in just under 2 hours.

There were 17 All-Ins in 38 hands.  That's 45%, showing a very aggressive final table.

Out of 17 All-Ins, the player going all-in won 11 times (65% success rate).

8 of the all-ins (72%) were by the same player who incidentally made it to the final-2 and lost on his final all-in bet.

At least 2 players saw the flop 79% of the time.  21% of the time the winner was decided before the flop.  In other words the hand was decided pre-flop 1 out of every 5 hands.

Out of the 30 hands that saw the flop, the players remaining (who hadn't folded yet) with the best starting hole cards won the pot 17 times (57% of the time).

And finally. . . .

Most interesting to me - I ranked all of the winning hole cards to find out the average winning hole cards.  To do this, I ranked the cards from 1 to 13 (2=1, A=13).  The average winning hole cards were. . . . .

J   8

How many times would a J 8 hold up in your home game?