Sunday, May 15, 2011
Back on Track???
I've been playing break-even poker for a couple of months now. This weekend however, I won 4 out of 6 games. It's really difficult to win consistently when you play against the same group of guys every week. Familiarity necessitates frequent change-ups with these guys. A couple of them have really improved over the past few months, making winning much less than a foregone conclusion, but the enhanced level of competition is pretty fun. Anyways, I haven't blogged in quite a while. So, I figured I would commemorate today's 3 for 3 showing with a new post. Thanks to all of my buddies for playing at my poker room today.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Just Playing Math in Texas Hold'em
I love this subject because it's the math of poker. In my Friday Night Games, I started saying, "I'm just playing math." It's really maddening sometimes to know the math of poker, especially the odds of hitting draws (or really the odds of hitting any card). It's maddening because of how much fun it is to play and not fold, but smart poker relies on playing the odds.
Many of the guys I play with regularly REALLY like to have fun playing poker - I mean seriously, really like to have fun. And the trade off to fun is WINNING in the long-run because smart poker requires folding and not getting involved in many hands.
What? Folding! And then there's Friday Night Poker. I'm not risking all that much to play with my friends, so it's OK. But, like I said, this is a fun topic and I'm going to write about it anyways.
So, the odds of hitting draws on the river are really, really bad. It's the rule of 2 which says that you multiply your outs by 2 (with only the river card to go) and that gives you the percentage chance of success. So, the best possible draw you can have is an open-ended straight draw, along with a flush draw, and add that one of your hole cards is an Ace that if it hit could possibly win the hand. So, you have 4 cards to a flush already, leaving 9 other flush cards. Add to that 6 of the remaining non-flush cards that could make your straight, and the remaining 2 non-flush Aces and you've got yourself a solid 17 OUTS.
Now multiply those 17 outs by 2 and you get a whopping 34% chance of hitting a winning hand. That's basically a 1 in 3 chance of success, but a 2 in 3 chance of failure. But wait! What if you're up against another flush draw hand or another open-ended straight draw hand and that person hits too and has a higher flush or straight? Well, now you're just screwed all the way. You might think that a scenario like that is too unlikely to really happen and true, the odds of that aren't super high, but I've seen it.
Last week, I saw 2 guys hit a Jack High Straight by the turn and river, while a 3rd guy also hit his Jack High Straight on the River (seriously, this really happened). Guess what? Guy #3 actually made a Jack High Straight Flush and won the hand. The really sick thing about that, is that his odds of hitting that Jack of diamonds were about 49 to 1 against, but for some people, hitting that hand is all they need to chase cards for the rest of their poker lives.
But back to our 2 out of 3 chances of failure scenario. The only way you can make a call where 2 out of 3 times you will fail is if you get more than those same odds in the pot. So, you need to make 3 to 1 or more on your money to even consider calling river bets. And there you go playing math again.
At a game like I play on Friday nights, you have 4 to 6 guys that are generally willing to call down to the river - regardless of the odds. If you have 1 or 2 guys who do this, then you have a very profitable game in the long-run, but with 4 to 6 people doing it, you're very likely going to simply lose your mind.
Many of the guys I play with regularly REALLY like to have fun playing poker - I mean seriously, really like to have fun. And the trade off to fun is WINNING in the long-run because smart poker requires folding and not getting involved in many hands.
What? Folding! And then there's Friday Night Poker. I'm not risking all that much to play with my friends, so it's OK. But, like I said, this is a fun topic and I'm going to write about it anyways.
So, the odds of hitting draws on the river are really, really bad. It's the rule of 2 which says that you multiply your outs by 2 (with only the river card to go) and that gives you the percentage chance of success. So, the best possible draw you can have is an open-ended straight draw, along with a flush draw, and add that one of your hole cards is an Ace that if it hit could possibly win the hand. So, you have 4 cards to a flush already, leaving 9 other flush cards. Add to that 6 of the remaining non-flush cards that could make your straight, and the remaining 2 non-flush Aces and you've got yourself a solid 17 OUTS.
Now multiply those 17 outs by 2 and you get a whopping 34% chance of hitting a winning hand. That's basically a 1 in 3 chance of success, but a 2 in 3 chance of failure. But wait! What if you're up against another flush draw hand or another open-ended straight draw hand and that person hits too and has a higher flush or straight? Well, now you're just screwed all the way. You might think that a scenario like that is too unlikely to really happen and true, the odds of that aren't super high, but I've seen it.
Last week, I saw 2 guys hit a Jack High Straight by the turn and river, while a 3rd guy also hit his Jack High Straight on the River (seriously, this really happened). Guess what? Guy #3 actually made a Jack High Straight Flush and won the hand. The really sick thing about that, is that his odds of hitting that Jack of diamonds were about 49 to 1 against, but for some people, hitting that hand is all they need to chase cards for the rest of their poker lives.
But back to our 2 out of 3 chances of failure scenario. The only way you can make a call where 2 out of 3 times you will fail is if you get more than those same odds in the pot. So, you need to make 3 to 1 or more on your money to even consider calling river bets. And there you go playing math again.
At a game like I play on Friday nights, you have 4 to 6 guys that are generally willing to call down to the river - regardless of the odds. If you have 1 or 2 guys who do this, then you have a very profitable game in the long-run, but with 4 to 6 people doing it, you're very likely going to simply lose your mind.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Beating the Loose-Passive Texas Hold'em Game
I played very aggressively in Friday Night Poker. When I had a strong starting hand, I raised. When the action checked to me, I raised. I fired big bets pre-flop, at the turn, and at the river, sometimes even if I knew I had the worst hand. This aggressive play worked in the first game and I came from behind once it was down to the final 3 and won the game.
As I've mentioned before, except for a couple of very strong players, this Friday night game is primarily a loose-passive game. Of the 10 regulars, we have 3 that are mostly tight-aggressive, 1 that is mostly loose-aggressive, and 6 that are mostly loose-passive. This means that we have a lot of river card chasers and a lot of checking and calling.
The key to winning the loose-passive game is understanding what your opponents are likely to do. They are going to call most small to medium sized pre-flop bets with a very wide range of starting hand combinations, but they aren't likely to continue if they don't pair on the flop or have a draw of some kind. After the flop, they will likely check, but call many bets. If they don't fold, they have a pair, a draw, or in my game, an Ace. Bluffing them is not effective because they like to call and many of them either don't understand the odds of hitting their card or they may not care about the odds because they have more fun when they're in the hand.
Playing in a loose-passive game can frustrate a stronger player because they get drawn out on fairly often. If a game has just 2 loose-passives, drawing doesn't happen as often, but with 6 players, it can just be maddening. So, how do you play in a game with so many players that make you want to run in front of traffic?
1. Loosen up some yourself and play a wider range of starting hands. 2 face cards are not necessarily needed to win these games. With so many players usually hanging in to see the flop, smaller connecting cards like 7-8, 7-9, 6-8, and even 5-7 can be strong hands. If everyone else wants to play their face cards and many of them stay in the hand, it stands to reason that your smaller cards have a greater chance of hitting.
2. Don't bluff too often against the loose-passive player. They want to call because playing is more fun than folding.
3. Bet your medium to strong hands. If they don't pair or have a draw, they will fold. If they call, you'll have a pretty good idea what you're up against.
4. Check your weaker hands and they will usually check behind you to give you cheap or free turn and river cards to possibly win with.
5. If you bet and they raise, get out if you don't have a clear winner. The loose-passive only plays aggressively when they have a big hand.
6. If the loose-passive is in a position to act before you and they bet, use caution because they probably hit their card and you may be behind. Or they may be betting a draw with lots of outs. Be careful. You may not be able to bet them off of those hands.
7. Value bet more often, especially when draws clearly missed.
8. Try not to mix it up with more than 2 loose-passives at a time. It's better to isolate against a single player to reduce your odds of getting out-drawn.
9. Know when you're beaten and get out. This was my big mistake Friday night.
10. Keep a long-term perspective because the odds are going to be in your favor in the long-run. Drawing for a flush after the turn gives at best a 1:3 odds against hitting. Drawing for an open-ended straight gives at best a 1:6 odds against hitting. Hanging in for the chance to hit the 1 miracle card left in the deck that could give you the win gives an overwhelming 1:50 odds against hitting. Your tight-aggressive style will win most of the time in the long-run. So, hang in there.
As I've mentioned before, except for a couple of very strong players, this Friday night game is primarily a loose-passive game. Of the 10 regulars, we have 3 that are mostly tight-aggressive, 1 that is mostly loose-aggressive, and 6 that are mostly loose-passive. This means that we have a lot of river card chasers and a lot of checking and calling.
The key to winning the loose-passive game is understanding what your opponents are likely to do. They are going to call most small to medium sized pre-flop bets with a very wide range of starting hand combinations, but they aren't likely to continue if they don't pair on the flop or have a draw of some kind. After the flop, they will likely check, but call many bets. If they don't fold, they have a pair, a draw, or in my game, an Ace. Bluffing them is not effective because they like to call and many of them either don't understand the odds of hitting their card or they may not care about the odds because they have more fun when they're in the hand.
Playing in a loose-passive game can frustrate a stronger player because they get drawn out on fairly often. If a game has just 2 loose-passives, drawing doesn't happen as often, but with 6 players, it can just be maddening. So, how do you play in a game with so many players that make you want to run in front of traffic?
1. Loosen up some yourself and play a wider range of starting hands. 2 face cards are not necessarily needed to win these games. With so many players usually hanging in to see the flop, smaller connecting cards like 7-8, 7-9, 6-8, and even 5-7 can be strong hands. If everyone else wants to play their face cards and many of them stay in the hand, it stands to reason that your smaller cards have a greater chance of hitting.
2. Don't bluff too often against the loose-passive player. They want to call because playing is more fun than folding.
3. Bet your medium to strong hands. If they don't pair or have a draw, they will fold. If they call, you'll have a pretty good idea what you're up against.
4. Check your weaker hands and they will usually check behind you to give you cheap or free turn and river cards to possibly win with.
5. If you bet and they raise, get out if you don't have a clear winner. The loose-passive only plays aggressively when they have a big hand.
6. If the loose-passive is in a position to act before you and they bet, use caution because they probably hit their card and you may be behind. Or they may be betting a draw with lots of outs. Be careful. You may not be able to bet them off of those hands.
7. Value bet more often, especially when draws clearly missed.
8. Try not to mix it up with more than 2 loose-passives at a time. It's better to isolate against a single player to reduce your odds of getting out-drawn.
9. Know when you're beaten and get out. This was my big mistake Friday night.
10. Keep a long-term perspective because the odds are going to be in your favor in the long-run. Drawing for a flush after the turn gives at best a 1:3 odds against hitting. Drawing for an open-ended straight gives at best a 1:6 odds against hitting. Hanging in for the chance to hit the 1 miracle card left in the deck that could give you the win gives an overwhelming 1:50 odds against hitting. Your tight-aggressive style will win most of the time in the long-run. So, hang in there.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Statistical Improbabilities in Texas Hold'em
I played the $1-$2 last night at Winstar and lost my first $200 in my first 10 hands at the table. My first big loss was with the AK of hearts in the hole (the 5th best starting hand in poker). The flop was A Q 6 (2 clubs). I get heads up with a guy that I figure likely was holding KQ or maybe even a flush draw. He also could have AQ which seemed like the only hand that could beat me based on probabilities. So, he went all-in and I called. I had an Ace. The board had an Ace. He had Pocket Aces for a set on the flop. It was so improbable that he would have Pocket Aces that I never considered it as a threat.
5 hands later I got pocket cowboys and decided not to see a flop, so I pushed all in pre-flop with my remaining $55. I got called by another guy who was holding, of all things, pocket aces. I lost with very strong hands twice in 10 hands to pocket aces. That is a statistical improbability.
So, I re-loaded with another $100 and moved to center position at the table, directly across from the dealer. That $100 played for the next 3 hours and I was up and down throughout the night until at one point, I was sitting at just over $50 and ready for a double-up. I was dealt 9-10 and got to see a cheap flop that was 9-10-2, with 2 diamonds. So, with top 2 pair and a possible flush draw, I pushed all in. I didn't need to see the flush. Everyone folded except for one fish who liked his 2 small diamonds and didn't know about the "rule of 4". He called and the river was a diamond. He had the 6 and the 8 and the river was. . . wait for it. . . the 7 of diamonds - he hit the straight-flush on the river - the most statistically improbable hand in poker. And I was out again.
But I wasn't mad. I wasn't on tilt. Everyone suffers from bad luck from time to time. I played strong and solid all night and lost some very big hands to the most statistically unlikely hands imaginable. It was actually funny. So, what did I do? I found an ATM and a new table.
I played one more $100 stack and found the table with the largest stacks in the room. One guy had about $1,200 in front of him and a couple of others had more than $500. The table was loose and despite my bad beats, I felt like I was playing hot. So, I sat down.
Unbelievably, I mixed it up with Mr. $1,200 2 hands in a row very early on. The first time, I had AJ suited and pushed all in with a flush draw. He had pocket K's and I was in trouble until I hit my magic Ace on the river. So, I was back. THE VERY NEXT HAND, I had K 10 and a K came on the flop. The same guy had pocket K's again! Back-to-back pocket K's! Statistically improbable, and at that point, completely hilarious. He got half of my stack with that hand.
Within the next half an hour I was dealt pocket A's (about time) and the house had an "Aces Cracked" thing running where if you lose with pocket Aces, the house pays you $100. So, I slow played and ended up heads up with a guy who had KJ and a Jack on the flop. I was way ahead until the river card came and it was another Jack. I found out a few seconds later that another guy at the table folded a Jack. That means that he hit the only jack left in the deck. I lost the hand, but got the house's $100.
30 minutes later, I had $218 in front of me and had to quit (but didn't really want to). I was playing good all night long, but just taking some really bad, statistically-improbable beats. I doubled my last $100 inside of an hour and felt like I could have gone on doing that for the rest of the night against these guys. But, now I'll never know for sure.
2 weeks ago, I tripled up at these same tables. I'm still up $200 in my last 2 trips up there despite the crazy night I had last night. I guess these swings are going to happen, but if it's going to take the most statistically unlikely hands to beat me, I'll take them.
But like I said last time, "results not typical". True.
5 hands later I got pocket cowboys and decided not to see a flop, so I pushed all in pre-flop with my remaining $55. I got called by another guy who was holding, of all things, pocket aces. I lost with very strong hands twice in 10 hands to pocket aces. That is a statistical improbability.
So, I re-loaded with another $100 and moved to center position at the table, directly across from the dealer. That $100 played for the next 3 hours and I was up and down throughout the night until at one point, I was sitting at just over $50 and ready for a double-up. I was dealt 9-10 and got to see a cheap flop that was 9-10-2, with 2 diamonds. So, with top 2 pair and a possible flush draw, I pushed all in. I didn't need to see the flush. Everyone folded except for one fish who liked his 2 small diamonds and didn't know about the "rule of 4". He called and the river was a diamond. He had the 6 and the 8 and the river was. . . wait for it. . . the 7 of diamonds - he hit the straight-flush on the river - the most statistically improbable hand in poker. And I was out again.
But I wasn't mad. I wasn't on tilt. Everyone suffers from bad luck from time to time. I played strong and solid all night and lost some very big hands to the most statistically unlikely hands imaginable. It was actually funny. So, what did I do? I found an ATM and a new table.
I played one more $100 stack and found the table with the largest stacks in the room. One guy had about $1,200 in front of him and a couple of others had more than $500. The table was loose and despite my bad beats, I felt like I was playing hot. So, I sat down.
Unbelievably, I mixed it up with Mr. $1,200 2 hands in a row very early on. The first time, I had AJ suited and pushed all in with a flush draw. He had pocket K's and I was in trouble until I hit my magic Ace on the river. So, I was back. THE VERY NEXT HAND, I had K 10 and a K came on the flop. The same guy had pocket K's again! Back-to-back pocket K's! Statistically improbable, and at that point, completely hilarious. He got half of my stack with that hand.
Within the next half an hour I was dealt pocket A's (about time) and the house had an "Aces Cracked" thing running where if you lose with pocket Aces, the house pays you $100. So, I slow played and ended up heads up with a guy who had KJ and a Jack on the flop. I was way ahead until the river card came and it was another Jack. I found out a few seconds later that another guy at the table folded a Jack. That means that he hit the only jack left in the deck. I lost the hand, but got the house's $100.
30 minutes later, I had $218 in front of me and had to quit (but didn't really want to). I was playing good all night long, but just taking some really bad, statistically-improbable beats. I doubled my last $100 inside of an hour and felt like I could have gone on doing that for the rest of the night against these guys. But, now I'll never know for sure.
2 weeks ago, I tripled up at these same tables. I'm still up $200 in my last 2 trips up there despite the crazy night I had last night. I guess these swings are going to happen, but if it's going to take the most statistically unlikely hands to beat me, I'll take them.
But like I said last time, "results not typical". True.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Poker Psychology
Several years ago, I started reading books on Negotiating. In fact, my boss made me read "Secrets of Power Persuasion for Salespeople," by Roger Dawson. Since he read that book too, I figured I better read more books like it so I could have as much of an advantage as possible with him (he's a really smart guy). So, I read just about everything I could find.
I read over 100 professional journal articles about negotiating topics ranging from psychology to international negotiations in Japan and Korea. I also read just about every negotiating book written in the last 10 years. Since I loved this topic so much, I started digging deeper into influence psychology. I wanted to learn how negotiations worked from the inside of people. Then, I topped that off with books on body language (by far the most boring of everything I read).
All of this negotiation, psychology, and influence was very appealing to me. For me, the key to it all sort of boiled down to many of my key characteristics anyways: be nice to people, make people feel good, get them to like you, then get them to see things your way. I just never connected the dots between that and all of that new information I read about until I read the books and practiced some.
Then, a few years ago, a good friend of mine invited me to play Texas Hold'em. After a couple of months, I won my first tournament and had that big "holy cow" moment. "Holy cow! All of this stuff is related." I started learning this stuff so I could work better with my genius boss. Then, I realized how much more effective I could be professionally by using these principles and tactics. But then came poker, and believe me - poker takes this stuff to another level that many business people never thought about.
In a business negotiation, 2 sides are working "together" to come to a mutually beneficial agreement. At least that's Dawson's basic premise: win-win. Of course, other less successful (in the long-term) negotiators only want a win-lose scenario. That doesn't really work that well in business because you might get one deal done, but then that's it, and the word gets out that you're just an A-hole who's in it for yourself and the pool of people to negotiate future deals with gets small.
At a poker table, the negotiations are ongoing and, at times, cut throat. You want to win this pot? It's gonna cost you? I'm all in. I want those blinds. I raise (How bad do you want them?). I check. Oh, you're gonna bet? OK. Then, I raise.
And psychology and influence are a huge factor in these moves. Who do you want to lose to? The A-hole or the nice guy at the table? Well neither, but if you have to lose anyways, it may as well be to the nice guy. Who do you have the most influence over in your daily lives? That's easy. You have the most influence with people you know that like you. That doesn't at all mean that you abuse that influence ability. But face it, it's there and it's reality. So, at the poker table, being a nice guy can pay off over the long-run. And being an A-hole won't work out for you.
What was my point? I read that poker is a game of psychology played with cards. I missed that way back when I first started reading about psychology, negotiation, and influence. Otherwise, I probably would have started playing poker years earlier. I love this stuff and I love poker and it works for me.
Disclaimer: For all of you guys that I play with on Friday nights - I'm just kidding. Don't pay any attention to me.
I read over 100 professional journal articles about negotiating topics ranging from psychology to international negotiations in Japan and Korea. I also read just about every negotiating book written in the last 10 years. Since I loved this topic so much, I started digging deeper into influence psychology. I wanted to learn how negotiations worked from the inside of people. Then, I topped that off with books on body language (by far the most boring of everything I read).
All of this negotiation, psychology, and influence was very appealing to me. For me, the key to it all sort of boiled down to many of my key characteristics anyways: be nice to people, make people feel good, get them to like you, then get them to see things your way. I just never connected the dots between that and all of that new information I read about until I read the books and practiced some.
Then, a few years ago, a good friend of mine invited me to play Texas Hold'em. After a couple of months, I won my first tournament and had that big "holy cow" moment. "Holy cow! All of this stuff is related." I started learning this stuff so I could work better with my genius boss. Then, I realized how much more effective I could be professionally by using these principles and tactics. But then came poker, and believe me - poker takes this stuff to another level that many business people never thought about.
In a business negotiation, 2 sides are working "together" to come to a mutually beneficial agreement. At least that's Dawson's basic premise: win-win. Of course, other less successful (in the long-term) negotiators only want a win-lose scenario. That doesn't really work that well in business because you might get one deal done, but then that's it, and the word gets out that you're just an A-hole who's in it for yourself and the pool of people to negotiate future deals with gets small.
At a poker table, the negotiations are ongoing and, at times, cut throat. You want to win this pot? It's gonna cost you? I'm all in. I want those blinds. I raise (How bad do you want them?). I check. Oh, you're gonna bet? OK. Then, I raise.
And psychology and influence are a huge factor in these moves. Who do you want to lose to? The A-hole or the nice guy at the table? Well neither, but if you have to lose anyways, it may as well be to the nice guy. Who do you have the most influence over in your daily lives? That's easy. You have the most influence with people you know that like you. That doesn't at all mean that you abuse that influence ability. But face it, it's there and it's reality. So, at the poker table, being a nice guy can pay off over the long-run. And being an A-hole won't work out for you.
What was my point? I read that poker is a game of psychology played with cards. I missed that way back when I first started reading about psychology, negotiation, and influence. Otherwise, I probably would have started playing poker years earlier. I love this stuff and I love poker and it works for me.
Disclaimer: For all of you guys that I play with on Friday nights - I'm just kidding. Don't pay any attention to me.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Full Tilt Poker: 50 to 1 Odds Against
I had the day off of work due to ice on the roads. So, earlier today I jumped on Full Tilt Poker to play a 90-player free money no-limit Texas Hold'em tournament. I didn't just decide to play - I decided to sit down and win.
Just like usual, I hung around the top 10 for most of the entire tournament. I moved between 1st and 6th place for most of the time. The decisions all seemed so clear and easy. Odds were fairly easy to calculate and my mind-set was to make positive expected value moves 100% of the time, play the +EV odds, and win.
Let's skip ahead to the final table. When it was down to the final 3 (me and 2 others), I felt that I had pretty good control over the action. In spite of that, I found myself in 3rd place, with a queen high flush (clubs) on the turn, against 2nd place and his made flush at the flop, with 4-6 of clubs. The clubs on the board were K, 3, 7, and 10. The only card left in the deck that could beat me was the 5 of clubs which would give my opponent a straight-flush. And, what are the odds of that?
Well, it's good that you asked because the odds were 2% to hit the 5 of clubs and 98% to miss. In other words, he had a 50 to 1 odds against hitting his card. I had the best of it and I went all-in after the turn gave me a flush. It was kind of funny because before I saw his cards, I knew that I only needed to avoid one card (the Ace of clubs). It turned out that the Ace wouldn't have helped my opponent at all. He needed the 5.
He got the 5. The board was all clubs (and what are the odds of that too?). So anyways, I ended my winning session in 3rd place with a 50:1 miracle for my opponent. The math says that if that hand was played out 100 times, I would win 98 times. If that was a real money tournament, I'm pretty sure that knowledge wouldn't make me feel better.
As it is, that makes 26 final tables in the last 52 weeks. These are free-money practice tournaments, but that's 1 final table every other week against 90 other (relatively wreckless) people each time. Also, my average final table ending position was 3.7 over that time.
But 50 to 1 in my favor? That's one time I don't want to be #1.
Just like usual, I hung around the top 10 for most of the entire tournament. I moved between 1st and 6th place for most of the time. The decisions all seemed so clear and easy. Odds were fairly easy to calculate and my mind-set was to make positive expected value moves 100% of the time, play the +EV odds, and win.
Let's skip ahead to the final table. When it was down to the final 3 (me and 2 others), I felt that I had pretty good control over the action. In spite of that, I found myself in 3rd place, with a queen high flush (clubs) on the turn, against 2nd place and his made flush at the flop, with 4-6 of clubs. The clubs on the board were K, 3, 7, and 10. The only card left in the deck that could beat me was the 5 of clubs which would give my opponent a straight-flush. And, what are the odds of that?
Well, it's good that you asked because the odds were 2% to hit the 5 of clubs and 98% to miss. In other words, he had a 50 to 1 odds against hitting his card. I had the best of it and I went all-in after the turn gave me a flush. It was kind of funny because before I saw his cards, I knew that I only needed to avoid one card (the Ace of clubs). It turned out that the Ace wouldn't have helped my opponent at all. He needed the 5.
He got the 5. The board was all clubs (and what are the odds of that too?). So anyways, I ended my winning session in 3rd place with a 50:1 miracle for my opponent. The math says that if that hand was played out 100 times, I would win 98 times. If that was a real money tournament, I'm pretty sure that knowledge wouldn't make me feel better.
As it is, that makes 26 final tables in the last 52 weeks. These are free-money practice tournaments, but that's 1 final table every other week against 90 other (relatively wreckless) people each time. Also, my average final table ending position was 3.7 over that time.
But 50 to 1 in my favor? That's one time I don't want to be #1.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
$136 per Hour in Texas Hold'em
I played Texas Holdem at Winstar casino last night. In 3 hours, I profited $136 per hour. My starting chip stack was $200 and I ended at $609. This was by far the best night I've ever had playing poker. I had middle position, directly in front of the dealer, a spot I've come accustomed to from all of my nights at Friday Night Poker. It took me about 20 minutes to semi-"figure" the other players at the table out and the better part of the next 2 hours getting them all in tune with me.
In tune with me? My goal was to get my opponents to do things that I wanted them to do, but be glad to do it. Eventually, I had the table checking in front and behind me when I wanted cheap flops and calling me when I wanted some action. It was very surreal. I had action junkies settling for smooth calls and strong players folding to my bluffs. I slowed down the action with strategic smaller-sized bets giving me more flops to see. Unlike past nights in the poker rooms, instead of avoiding big pots with strong players, I was creating and taking them down.
As every good player knows, it certainly helps to catch cards. I got a very nice range of acceptable to strong starting hands, hung around cheap pots for winning (weak) river cards, and took full advantage of every situation with aggressive raises. And aggression was a great equalizer. Aggressive betting on the flop, turn, and river was the key to taking down big pots with absolute air.
All of this was possible because I made "friends" with nearly everyone at the table. That's actually not so hard for me since I generally like people. Anyways, it's better for people to feel OK to lose to you than to feel contempt, which will just make them play harder and take more chances against you. I've never seen so many people who were so at ease with losing their money. That's simply not a quality I will ever have.
I've learned a lot of new poker skills and philosophies lately and they paid off huge last night. I tripled by money in 3 hours. I just hope there's not a disclaimer somewhere that says, "results not typical".
In tune with me? My goal was to get my opponents to do things that I wanted them to do, but be glad to do it. Eventually, I had the table checking in front and behind me when I wanted cheap flops and calling me when I wanted some action. It was very surreal. I had action junkies settling for smooth calls and strong players folding to my bluffs. I slowed down the action with strategic smaller-sized bets giving me more flops to see. Unlike past nights in the poker rooms, instead of avoiding big pots with strong players, I was creating and taking them down.
As every good player knows, it certainly helps to catch cards. I got a very nice range of acceptable to strong starting hands, hung around cheap pots for winning (weak) river cards, and took full advantage of every situation with aggressive raises. And aggression was a great equalizer. Aggressive betting on the flop, turn, and river was the key to taking down big pots with absolute air.
All of this was possible because I made "friends" with nearly everyone at the table. That's actually not so hard for me since I generally like people. Anyways, it's better for people to feel OK to lose to you than to feel contempt, which will just make them play harder and take more chances against you. I've never seen so many people who were so at ease with losing their money. That's simply not a quality I will ever have.
I've learned a lot of new poker skills and philosophies lately and they paid off huge last night. I tripled by money in 3 hours. I just hope there's not a disclaimer somewhere that says, "results not typical".
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Dangerous Play in Texas Holdem
There's a particular style of play in Texas Hold'em that's very dangerous and erratic. It's dangerous to the rest of the table because it can cause opponents to suffer extreme losses. It's dangerous to the player using the style because it can result in extreme losses. It's erratic because it can also cause extreme swings from losses to wins. This style is called "Loose-Aggressive".
It's loose because the player will play a very wide range of starting hands and it's aggressive because bets are large and raises are frequent. Recently, I've had the opportunity to play against 2 or 3 new guys who could be categorized as loose-aggressive. Actually, they're the text book definition.
This kind of player can thrive against tight-passive players because these people tend to play scared, waiting for the perfect hand to bust their opponent with. They're thrown off by the loose-aggressor and find themselves checking to the player and folding to his large bets. In fact, they fold until the blinds have eaten them alive and they're forced to make one final all-in bet that usually loses, and when it wins, simply puts them in a position to have to do it again. This continues until they are quickly on the sidelines.
Everyone loves to beat the loose-aggressor, but many players don't have the guts to get it done. Sometimes, you just have to play that A-9 aggressively to beat the aggressor with the A-6. That hand doesn't seem so strong with a board showing K-J-10-8-3, but the loose aggressor is hoping that you will fold to his bluff. So, what should you do? Disappoint him. How many hands in a row could he have made anyways? 1 out of 5? Maybe. That would mean that 4 out of 5 times, he's got air. Push back.
"Aggression is the ultimate equalizer." The loose-aggressor is not equalizing. He's unbalancing the table with his aggression. So, you have to equalize with your own aggression. There's a good reason the tight-aggressive player is referred to as a "Stone-Cold Killer" in poker. You play tight until you get good cards and you play aggressively when you get your cards. Against the loose-aggressor, you just need to loosen up a little yourself and then let him have it with your perfectly timed aggression. How about this?
The check-raise is a killer to the loose-aggressor. But be ready for his all-in re-raise. He's a maniac. What else is he going to do? Beat him (at his own game) on this hand and if he's still in after that hand, he won't likely do it again (to you at least).
And sometimes you just have to stay out of this person's way and out-last the rest of the table. Get him head's up and you're style can break him down because a much looser range of hands will win head's up.
When you don't get good cards to check-raise with, then the key is to stay alive. Be aggressive against the rest of the table. Build your stack and get head's up. Maybe the loose-aggressor will even step off into one against someone else along the way. Then, you're in a great position to take it all down.
When you understand how to play against the loose-aggressor, that style of play is no longer dangerous to you. Instead, it's dangerous to him and to all of those who don't know how to handle him. Hang around, build a stack, and take it down.
It's loose because the player will play a very wide range of starting hands and it's aggressive because bets are large and raises are frequent. Recently, I've had the opportunity to play against 2 or 3 new guys who could be categorized as loose-aggressive. Actually, they're the text book definition.
This kind of player can thrive against tight-passive players because these people tend to play scared, waiting for the perfect hand to bust their opponent with. They're thrown off by the loose-aggressor and find themselves checking to the player and folding to his large bets. In fact, they fold until the blinds have eaten them alive and they're forced to make one final all-in bet that usually loses, and when it wins, simply puts them in a position to have to do it again. This continues until they are quickly on the sidelines.
Everyone loves to beat the loose-aggressor, but many players don't have the guts to get it done. Sometimes, you just have to play that A-9 aggressively to beat the aggressor with the A-6. That hand doesn't seem so strong with a board showing K-J-10-8-3, but the loose aggressor is hoping that you will fold to his bluff. So, what should you do? Disappoint him. How many hands in a row could he have made anyways? 1 out of 5? Maybe. That would mean that 4 out of 5 times, he's got air. Push back.
"Aggression is the ultimate equalizer." The loose-aggressor is not equalizing. He's unbalancing the table with his aggression. So, you have to equalize with your own aggression. There's a good reason the tight-aggressive player is referred to as a "Stone-Cold Killer" in poker. You play tight until you get good cards and you play aggressively when you get your cards. Against the loose-aggressor, you just need to loosen up a little yourself and then let him have it with your perfectly timed aggression. How about this?
Check . . . Bet . . . Raise
The check-raise is a killer to the loose-aggressor. But be ready for his all-in re-raise. He's a maniac. What else is he going to do? Beat him (at his own game) on this hand and if he's still in after that hand, he won't likely do it again (to you at least).
And sometimes you just have to stay out of this person's way and out-last the rest of the table. Get him head's up and you're style can break him down because a much looser range of hands will win head's up.
When you don't get good cards to check-raise with, then the key is to stay alive. Be aggressive against the rest of the table. Build your stack and get head's up. Maybe the loose-aggressor will even step off into one against someone else along the way. Then, you're in a great position to take it all down.
When you understand how to play against the loose-aggressor, that style of play is no longer dangerous to you. Instead, it's dangerous to him and to all of those who don't know how to handle him. Hang around, build a stack, and take it down.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Finally Broke the Losing Streak
If you keep up with my blogs, you know that I've been dealing with weeks of overall losing. I lost about 80% of my games over the last 2+ months during a time when I have been digging deep into a lot of poker books and working on my overall style of play. Last weekend, all of that losing finally came to an end.
On Friday night, we played just 2 games, but I got 2nd place in one of the games. I know that isn't a win, but considering that I was beaten only by Rob in that game, I viewed it as a success. My game was good. The next morning, I played in a 90-player full tilt poker tournament and got 2nd place there as well. That was fun because I was knocking out more players that the other 2 guys who were among the chip leaders throughout the tournament. I even eventually knocked out 1 of those guys at the final table. By the time it was down to heads up action, I was a 6 to 1 chip underdog and all I could really do was play super-aggressive and hope for the best. It was a good tournament though.
Finally, last night I was online playing Omaha Hi, while watching the NCAA national championship game, and ended up with 10 times more chips than I started with. Incidentally, I have more "play" chips now than ever before. So, that's cool.
Clearly, I'm looking for any little bit of positive that I can find leading up to my Vegas trip. I'll take what I can get. Whether it's for money or for fun, winning is way better than losing.
Stay tuned.
On Friday night, we played just 2 games, but I got 2nd place in one of the games. I know that isn't a win, but considering that I was beaten only by Rob in that game, I viewed it as a success. My game was good. The next morning, I played in a 90-player full tilt poker tournament and got 2nd place there as well. That was fun because I was knocking out more players that the other 2 guys who were among the chip leaders throughout the tournament. I even eventually knocked out 1 of those guys at the final table. By the time it was down to heads up action, I was a 6 to 1 chip underdog and all I could really do was play super-aggressive and hope for the best. It was a good tournament though.
Finally, last night I was online playing Omaha Hi, while watching the NCAA national championship game, and ended up with 10 times more chips than I started with. Incidentally, I have more "play" chips now than ever before. So, that's cool.
Clearly, I'm looking for any little bit of positive that I can find leading up to my Vegas trip. I'll take what I can get. Whether it's for money or for fun, winning is way better than losing.
Stay tuned.
Sunday, January 2, 2011
When to Take a Break (or Quit) in Poker
I'll play poker pretty much any time there's a game to be played. Recently however, I've come across several situations that should have caused me to take a break or quit for the day. Over the past week, I've played nearly 20 hours of poker. If I would have stopped in a couple of situations, I would have made a lot more money. So, this is a list of situations that should make you consider taking a break or quitting for the day.
1. When you're too tired.
2. When you're hungry.
3. When you've had too much to drink.
4. When you're angry.
5. When you've taken a bad beat and you're on tilt.
6. When you're sick.
7. When you're losing too much and feeling desperate.
8. When one or more other players at the table seem to "have your number".
9. When you're only still playing to get even with another player.
10. When everyone at the table seems to be begging you to stay.
1. When you're too tired.
2. When you're hungry.
3. When you've had too much to drink.
4. When you're angry.
5. When you've taken a bad beat and you're on tilt.
6. When you're sick.
7. When you're losing too much and feeling desperate.
8. When one or more other players at the table seem to "have your number".
9. When you're only still playing to get even with another player.
10. When everyone at the table seems to be begging you to stay.
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