Showing posts with label chase the river. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chase the river. Show all posts

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Just Playing Math in Texas Hold'em

I love this subject because it's the math of poker.  In my Friday Night Games, I started saying, "I'm just playing math."  It's really maddening sometimes to know the math of poker, especially the odds of hitting draws (or really the odds of hitting any card).  It's maddening because of how much fun it is to play and not fold, but smart poker relies on playing the odds.

Many of the guys I play with regularly REALLY like to have fun playing poker - I mean seriously, really like to have fun.  And the trade off to fun is WINNING in the long-run because smart poker requires folding and not getting involved in many hands. 

What?  Folding!  And then there's Friday Night Poker.  I'm not risking all that much to play with my friends, so it's OK.  But, like I said, this is a fun topic and I'm going to write about it anyways. 

So, the odds of hitting draws on the river are really, really bad.  It's the rule of 2 which says that you multiply your outs by 2 (with only the river card to go) and that gives you the percentage chance of success.  So, the best possible draw you can have is an open-ended straight draw, along with a flush draw, and add that one of your hole cards is an Ace that if it hit could possibly win the hand.  So, you have 4 cards to a flush already, leaving 9 other flush cards.  Add to that 6 of the remaining non-flush cards that could make your straight, and the remaining 2 non-flush Aces and you've got yourself a solid 17 OUTS.

Now multiply those 17 outs by 2 and you get a whopping 34% chance of hitting a winning hand.  That's basically a 1 in 3 chance of success, but a 2 in 3 chance of failure.  But wait!  What if you're up against another flush draw hand or another open-ended straight draw hand and that person hits too and has a higher flush or straight?  Well, now you're just screwed all the way.  You might think that a scenario like that is too unlikely to really happen and true, the odds of that aren't super high, but I've seen it.

Last week, I saw 2 guys hit a Jack High Straight by the turn and river, while a 3rd guy also hit his Jack High Straight on the River (seriously, this really happened).  Guess what?  Guy #3 actually made a Jack High Straight Flush and won the hand.  The really sick thing about that, is that his odds of hitting that Jack of diamonds were about 49 to 1 against, but for some people, hitting that hand is all they need to chase cards for the rest of their poker lives.

But back to our 2 out of 3 chances of failure scenario.  The only way you can make a call where 2 out of 3 times you will fail is if you get more than those same odds in the pot.  So, you need to make 3 to 1 or more on your money to even consider calling river bets.  And there you go playing math again.

At a game like I play on Friday nights, you have 4 to 6 guys that are generally willing to call down to the river - regardless of the odds.  If you have 1 or 2 guys who do this, then you have a very profitable game in the long-run, but with 4 to 6 people doing it, you're very likely going to simply lose your mind.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Beating the Loose-Passive Texas Hold'em Game

I played very aggressively in Friday Night Poker.  When I had a strong starting hand, I raised.  When the action checked to me, I raised.  I fired big bets pre-flop, at the turn, and at the river, sometimes even if I knew I had the worst hand.  This aggressive play worked in the first game and I came from behind once it was down to the final 3 and won the game.

As I've mentioned before, except for a couple of very strong players, this Friday night game is primarily a loose-passive game.  Of the 10 regulars, we have 3 that are mostly tight-aggressive, 1 that is mostly loose-aggressive, and 6 that are mostly loose-passive.  This means that we have a lot of river card chasers and a lot of checking and calling.

The key to winning the loose-passive game is understanding what your opponents are likely to do.  They are going to call most small to medium sized pre-flop bets with a very wide range of starting hand combinations, but they aren't likely to continue if they don't pair on the flop or have a draw of some kind.  After the flop, they will likely check, but call many bets.  If they don't fold, they have a pair, a draw, or in my game, an Ace.  Bluffing them is not effective because they like to call and many of them either don't understand the odds of hitting their card or they may not care about the odds because they have more fun when they're in the hand.

Playing in a loose-passive game can frustrate a stronger player because they get drawn out on fairly often.  If a game has just 2 loose-passives, drawing doesn't happen as often, but with 6 players, it can just be maddening.  So, how do you play in a game with so many players that make you want to run in front of traffic?

1.  Loosen up some yourself and play a wider range of starting hands.  2 face cards are not necessarily needed to win these games.  With so many players usually hanging in to see the flop, smaller connecting cards like 7-8, 7-9, 6-8, and even 5-7 can be strong hands.  If everyone else wants to play their face cards and many of them stay in the hand, it stands to reason that your smaller cards have a greater chance of hitting.

2.  Don't bluff too often against the loose-passive player.  They want to call because playing is more fun than folding.

3.  Bet your medium to strong hands.  If they don't pair or have a draw, they will fold.  If they call, you'll have a pretty good idea what you're up against.

4.  Check your weaker hands and they will usually check behind you to give you cheap or free turn and river cards to possibly win with.

5.  If you bet and they raise, get out if you don't have a clear winner.  The loose-passive only plays aggressively when they have a big hand.

6.  If the loose-passive is in a position to act before you and they bet, use caution because they probably hit their card and you may be behind.  Or they may be betting a draw with lots of outs.  Be careful.  You may not be able to bet them off of those hands.

7.  Value bet more often, especially when draws clearly missed.

8.  Try not to mix it up with more than 2 loose-passives at a time.  It's better to isolate against a single player to reduce your odds of getting out-drawn.

9.  Know when you're beaten and get out.  This was my big mistake Friday night.

10.  Keep a long-term perspective because the odds are going to be in your favor in the long-run.  Drawing for a flush after the turn gives at best a 1:3 odds against hitting.  Drawing for an open-ended straight gives at best a 1:6 odds against hitting.  Hanging in for the chance to hit the 1 miracle card left in the deck that could give you the win gives an overwhelming 1:50 odds against hitting.  Your tight-aggressive style will win most of the time in the long-run.  So, hang in there.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Texas Holdem: Not Another Bad Beat Story

This is NOT another bad beat story.  Nobody wants to hear about that anyways.  Suck-outs on the river, a term I just came up with - "River Boats", chasers, miracle inside straights, and the list goes on.  These bad beats are a fact of life in Texas Hold'em that serious players just have to be able to live with in exchange for long-term profits. I've taken some seriously bad beats in the last few months, but during that time I've also learned something very valuable about the reason for those so-called bad beats.  The lesson?  It's my own damn fault!

That's right.  Nobody else is to blame for the bad beats I've taken. Not the old man who sucked out a flush on the river at Winstar.  Not the all-camo guy who bluffed me off of pocket kings at Winstar (with pocket 4's).  And not the kid who "River Boated" me on Sunday afternoon.  It's not the guy at Friday Night Poker that loves chasing river cards either (actually the 3 or 4 guys - affectionately).

Most people don't actively calculate the odds of hitting that miracle card.  Actually, lots of guys don't even know how to calculate the odds.  We're supposed to love playing with chasers because the odds are so bad against them hitting and in favor of us making a profit.  I can live with it because the odds are against hitting for chasers.  The "rule of 2" says that to hit the river, you have to multiply your outs by 2.  So, to hit a flush on the river, you have 9 possible outs.  Times 2, that's 18% that your flush card will hit.  Put another way, you have an 82% chance of failure.

What about an open-ended straight draw AND a flush draw on the river (and forget that someone else could have already hit their flush at the turn)?  Well, here you have 9 flush cards and 8 other cards for the straight (at the most).  Now you have 17 outs!  Congratulations - you still have a 2 out of 3 chance to fail.  That's almost as good as it gets.  Don' get me wrong.  That's the kind of river I'm probably going to chase too, especially if I have an A or K that I could also pair on the river which would give me 3 additional outs (which is very unlikely to begin with).

So, with those river odds, I guess I want to play with a few chasers.  And now back to my main point.  It's not their fault when they hit and I lose.  It's mine.  I think it was Alan Schoonmaker, PH.D. who said that "aggression is the ultimate equalizer" in poker.  What an enlightening statement!

AGGRESSION IS THE ULTIMATE EQUALIZER

The guy who hit his river flush did so because I didn't bet him off of it after the flop.  His stack was way bigger than mine.  $35 wasn't getting that done.  All in!  The pocket 4 bluffer?  Something inside of me said he didn't have it, but the devil on my shoulder got me to fold.  That's because the devil on the other shoulder wasn't asshole enough to push All in!  The "river boat" was absolutely my fault.  I checked to maximize profit and the miracle river card hit.  Checking is weakness in Texas Hold'em.  I deserved it.  I let the remaining 2 sixes in a 52-card deck become a factor and he hit one of them.

If aggression is the ultimate equalizer in poker, then I'll use it.  I have to use it and I can't worry about it upsetting guys at the table (especially the loose-aggressive / loose-passive table I play at every week).  Why would I worry about it upsetting someone at the table anyways?  I don't know, but there's an interesting true story about it.

A few weeks ago, I came to play a very different game that I usually play.  I raised all of my premium hands.  Checks to me led to raises of 3 or 4 times the BB or 3 times the previous bet.  My initial bets were 1/3 to 1/2 the pot.  I took full advantage of my good hands and my good position.  This style worked.  My chip stack was nearly double the person in 2nd place.  Aggression was the ultimate equalizer.  I wasn't bluffing (at least not more than anyone else).  I was just playing my hands, position, and my reads on the other guys.

So, here's the point.  One of the guys was noticeably irritated with me and I happen to really like and respect him a lot.  I got pocket 6's and checked them on the button with some callers ahead of me.  The flop came Q, 6, and something else.  After everyone else checked around to me, I bet my set with a healthy raise.  The SB (whom I like and respect) angrily shoved all in.  He was probably frustrated because I was raising him off of his hands most of the game.  Everyone else folded back around to me and I did something that I will never do again.  Want to guess what that was?

I "contemplated" my hand, appeard to "struggle" with my decision, and folded my set face down saying, "I can't beat your set."  He showed me his bluff (of course I knew he didn't have anything) and I patted him on the back and told him what a great move he made on me.

I WILL NEVER DO THAT AGAIN.

Since that night, I've won 2 out of 10 games.  At various times in almost all of those games, I've had nice sized chip stacks too that I should have eventually won with.  I'm going to Vegas in less than 3 weeks and this crap I'm throwing out is going to get me killed!  Yesterday, I suffered 4 straight losses. I didn't sleep well last night, to say the least.  Who loses sleep over low-stakes poker games?  Me!  Most of the guys I play with play for fun.  I want the fun too, along with being able to hang out with a lot of really great men.  But I play to win and I would play that way even if there was no money at stake.  I just want to win. 

I don't think I'm God's gift to poker and that I should win every game just by showing up.  That's crazy.  I'm still relatively new at this game.  Rob and Chris are great players that make me want to be better.  Prescott's maniac game can put an entire table badly off balance.  I've seen Charlie make some seriously disciplined lay downs that I've learned from.  Spain's loose-passive style can trap you and his big hands will shut you down.  Cody's unpredictable and not scared to bluff and chase the river.  Brandon's hard to push off of a hand.  Keith is the most improved player at the table who's really starting to put a serious game together.  Larry can push a big stack around as good as anyone (and plays Q 3 like champ) and George could literally have anything in any hand.

But this is not another bad beat story and I'm not whining about my recent losses.  I'm grateful for them.  They made me wake up and pull my head out.  I'm not having fun when I lose 8 out of 10 games.  Losing SUCKS!  I'm going to start playing my big hands big - period.  My style has to be Tight-Aggressive.  I'll either wait for cards or position, and then I'll get the best of it.  If I get "rivered", so be it.  That river won't be free.  I'll still get my butt handed to me from time to time, but it won't be because I didn't do my best to equalize.

That's it.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Texas Holdem: Sick Winning Streak

In the last few months, I've been winning - period.  I'm winnng on-line.  I'm winning in Friday Night Poker.  I'm winning when I'm not interested in the game.  I'm winning when I'm badly distracted.  I'm winning when I get bad to medium hands.  And last night, I won when I couldn't miss.  I got 2nd, 1st, 1st last night.  My hands last night were so lucky that I was embarrarssed to keep winning.  I even folded what would have turned out to be great hands, including a full house.  The thing about getting cards though is that you have to play them right.  I wrote a while back about not mis-playing hands:  http://floppedtheboat.blogspot.com/2010/08/avoid-mis-played-poker-hands.html. 

Well, I can only think of maybe 1 or 2 hands that I mis-played last night.  Most of my moves last night were on purpose, meaning that even when I made questionable calls, it was for a reason.  For example, I played a couple of hands all the way to the river and made small raises and straight calls and lost the hands because I didn't even have a pair.  That was sort of my way of mixing up so the other guys don't "figure me out" like they used to all the time.  There's a guy that I play with that I swear sometimes he can see my cards before I do.  In recognition of this, I have to try to keep him guessing.

I had a couple of other winning hands that I might have folded in the past.  In one of them, I hit the straight on the river.  I wasn't chasing the river.  The bets made just weren't big enough to get me off my hand and I hit.  The river card was the 3rd club on the board and my opponent made a big bet THAT I DIDN'T BELIEVE.  So, I went with my gut and made the successful call.  In another hand, I had A J suited and the board paired 7's and some other small cards.  It was checks on the flop and checks on the turn (keeping me in the hand) and then my opponent bet the river.  I quickly calculated the odds of what I thought he had and found that the odds were against him, so I made the call and won.  He also had an Ace in his hand with a smaller kicker.

I know the way I've been winning lately has to be frustrating for the guys I play with.  I would be frustrated if I was them.  Then again, frustration is a weakness in poker because it brings a loss of focus, but it's hard to avoid sometimes.  Right now, I'm questioning my poker ability because this kind of winning makes me wonder how much of my success is pure luck.  I'm happy to have it on my side for as long as possible, but in the bigger picture, luck isn't why I want to win.  I'm going to be re-evaluating my actual skills over the next week.  Some of the guys I play with are too good for me to hope for luck each time I set down.  I want to be good enough to play with anyone.  I'm not there yet and that's going to be my focus.

This has been a sick streak though.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Texas Holdem: How to Beat a Losing Streak

A couple of months ago, I ended a 6-week losing streak in Friday Night Poker that I was more than happy to see go.  Prior to that streak starting, I had built some positive momentum of winning quite a bit more than I was losing.  Chronic winning and chronic losing create very different psychological game play.  It is my opinion that winning streaks are built by, quite literally, a winning attitude.  Conversely, losing streaks are worsened and continued by a losing attitude.  Until you realize you're playing with a losing attitude, you're going to just keep losing.

What is a losing attitude in poker?

1.  You're easily frustrated.
2.  You get upset, or even angry, more often than usual when other players suck out on the river.
3.  You've lost your momentum and you no longer play hands like you were when you were winning.
4.  You don't play the people as much as you play your cards, and you mis-play those.
5.  You are irritated when you folded your hand (smartly) and realize that your hand would have won.
6.  Your betting doesn't make any sense.
7.  You literally think about all of the losing you've been doing more than you focus on winning this hand and this game.
8.  All the talk at the table has you distracted and frustrated.

What is a winning attitude in poker?

1.  You play relaxed and in control.
2.  You play patiently, allowing yourself to fold smartly without looking back in regret.
3.  You don't get angry when players suck out on the river because you are already aware of player tendencies at the table and you adjust your game accordingly.
4.  You play the people at least as much as you play your cards, watching for trends, habits, and tells.
5.  Because you understand how your opponents are playing, your betting makes perfect sense.  You know for example that some people just won't be raised out of their card chase, so you don't make any critical errors.
6.  You certainly don't think about losing, maybe not even winning because you are only thinking about this hand, building momentum, and not allowing your opponents to gain momentum.
7.  You are not distracted by anything that is going on at the table.  It's almost as if you have blocked that nonsense out and you're in a zone.
8.  You never believe your out of it as long as you have a chip in front of you.

I love poker so much because of the psychology-factor.  Sometimes it doesn't even matter which 2 cards you hold in your hand.  When you've got it, you can win very often regardless of the strength of your hand.  When you've lost it however, you MUST have a good hand to have a prayer for success.  So, in my opinion, if you want long-term success in really anything, including poker, you need to think like a dominant champion.  Believe you will win.  Do everything just like you do when you're winning.

Friday, August 13, 2010

Bad Hand? Get Over It!

In a typical poker tournament, players will see hundreds of hands (or thousands if they make it deep into the tournament).  In your home game, you can easily see hundreds of hands.  In my weekly Friday Night Poker games, we always see the turn and river cards, even if everyone folds after the flop.  If you've already folded, but others are still in the hand, you're always going to see the next cards.  Very often, you made a smart fold and then cards that would have improved your hand will come on the turn or the river.  Does that make you mad?  Get over it.  What about when you think you should have won a hand, but then someone chased the river card and sucked out a win?  Does that make you mad?  Get over it.

When stuff like this happens, you really do just have to get over it.  You need a terrible memory.  Forget the last hand.  That hand is over.  The next hand is coming.  If you're still angry over the previous hand, how do you think you're going to feel after this hand?  You're going to make "pissed off" bets.  You'll go down with "sunken chips".  You'll make a stupid bet or a bad raise and you'll get called.  Then, you're sitting around waiting for the next game to start.

If you feel yourself getting upset over hands, stand up and walk away from the table.  Lose your blinds, but don't lose your mind.  Just get over it.