I played the $1-$2 last night at Winstar and lost my first $200 in my first 10 hands at the table. My first big loss was with the AK of hearts in the hole (the 5th best starting hand in poker). The flop was A Q 6 (2 clubs). I get heads up with a guy that I figure likely was holding KQ or maybe even a flush draw. He also could have AQ which seemed like the only hand that could beat me based on probabilities. So, he went all-in and I called. I had an Ace. The board had an Ace. He had Pocket Aces for a set on the flop. It was so improbable that he would have Pocket Aces that I never considered it as a threat.
5 hands later I got pocket cowboys and decided not to see a flop, so I pushed all in pre-flop with my remaining $55. I got called by another guy who was holding, of all things, pocket aces. I lost with very strong hands twice in 10 hands to pocket aces. That is a statistical improbability.
So, I re-loaded with another $100 and moved to center position at the table, directly across from the dealer. That $100 played for the next 3 hours and I was up and down throughout the night until at one point, I was sitting at just over $50 and ready for a double-up. I was dealt 9-10 and got to see a cheap flop that was 9-10-2, with 2 diamonds. So, with top 2 pair and a possible flush draw, I pushed all in. I didn't need to see the flush. Everyone folded except for one fish who liked his 2 small diamonds and didn't know about the "rule of 4". He called and the river was a diamond. He had the 6 and the 8 and the river was. . . wait for it. . . the 7 of diamonds - he hit the straight-flush on the river - the most statistically improbable hand in poker. And I was out again.
But I wasn't mad. I wasn't on tilt. Everyone suffers from bad luck from time to time. I played strong and solid all night and lost some very big hands to the most statistically unlikely hands imaginable. It was actually funny. So, what did I do? I found an ATM and a new table.
I played one more $100 stack and found the table with the largest stacks in the room. One guy had about $1,200 in front of him and a couple of others had more than $500. The table was loose and despite my bad beats, I felt like I was playing hot. So, I sat down.
Unbelievably, I mixed it up with Mr. $1,200 2 hands in a row very early on. The first time, I had AJ suited and pushed all in with a flush draw. He had pocket K's and I was in trouble until I hit my magic Ace on the river. So, I was back. THE VERY NEXT HAND, I had K 10 and a K came on the flop. The same guy had pocket K's again! Back-to-back pocket K's! Statistically improbable, and at that point, completely hilarious. He got half of my stack with that hand.
Within the next half an hour I was dealt pocket A's (about time) and the house had an "Aces Cracked" thing running where if you lose with pocket Aces, the house pays you $100. So, I slow played and ended up heads up with a guy who had KJ and a Jack on the flop. I was way ahead until the river card came and it was another Jack. I found out a few seconds later that another guy at the table folded a Jack. That means that he hit the only jack left in the deck. I lost the hand, but got the house's $100.
30 minutes later, I had $218 in front of me and had to quit (but didn't really want to). I was playing good all night long, but just taking some really bad, statistically-improbable beats. I doubled my last $100 inside of an hour and felt like I could have gone on doing that for the rest of the night against these guys. But, now I'll never know for sure.
2 weeks ago, I tripled up at these same tables. I'm still up $200 in my last 2 trips up there despite the crazy night I had last night. I guess these swings are going to happen, but if it's going to take the most statistically unlikely hands to beat me, I'll take them.
But like I said last time, "results not typical". True.
Showing posts with label Poker Hand Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Poker Hand Statistics. Show all posts
Friday, February 18, 2011
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Texas Hold'em Game Transformation
Over the past several weeks, I've been literally fighting against myself in Texas Hold'em. My game has evolved from very tight to super loose and then back to variations in between. For too long, my cards were see-thru. When multiple people could call my hand, there's a serious problem. That's what instigated my current situation.
I began changing up my game and that brought win after win after win for weeks. But then, winning wasn't even satisfying. My game started being about something more than just winning. I had nights where I was in the money in all 3 games and I would drive home picking my bad moves a part. I had one game where I ended up with every single chip on the table, but all I could think about after a while was the game I got 2nd place in. What if I would have bet big instead of check? How did I misplay pocket A's so bad? Did I get bluffed on that one hand? Why couldn't I see the bluff? Even with an over-whelming winning percentage, something was wrong. I still wasn't good enough (and I'm still not).
Then, a series of things recently happened that turned it all upside down. I played a cash game at Winstar and lost $300 in a rushed effort with my wife waiting. Then, I went to New Orleans and played 6 hours only to lose $300 more. And last weekend, I went to Shreveport and lost $100 over several hours. Lose, lose, lose!!! I lost $700 in about a month's time, not to mention just barely breaking even in Friday Night Poker. You would think this probably didn't help matters very much, but it actually changed me.
These cash poker games are very aggressive. Sitting down with under-sized chip stacks and losing $700 over the course of about 12 hours opened my eyes to the fact that not only could I sit in there with big players, but I'm just on the cusp of being a big player myself. I feel like I'm very close and I learned that the #1 thing I'm missing is the thing I love most about poker - poker psychology.
I'm missing most of the tells and giving off most of them back to my opponents. I'm still an open book and my cards are still see-thru, but not for long. I had a chance lunch meeting with at attorney who just played in the WSOP main event and he placed in the top 10%, getting him into the money. We hit it off instantly and he recommended that I read Caro's Book of Poker Tells. In fact, he had it delivered to my office a couple of days later and I read it for the first time that night. Yes - I read it cover-to-cover that first night. I couldn't believe how badly I was crippling my game by giving off and not recognizing obvious tells.
So, last night I was playing Friday Night Poker with the guys and I spent most of the evening watching for tells. I still didn't win either game last night, but I did pick up some tells that saved me a lot of chips. One guy was sizing up his chip stack after seeing the flop. He had a good hand and I folded. He had me beat. Good fold. Another guy saw the flop and immediately glanced down at his chips - huge tell. Then, to add to it, he appeared to be indecisive as to whether or not to bet. That made up my mind to fold - good fold. He had it. Then, my favorite one took a little friendly manipulation on my part. I had pocket J's and the flop was all cards lower than jack, so was the turn. I bet fairly big and was raised on the flop and the turn. So, I said to the other guy, "I have a pretty big pocket pair, so if you're raising me, you must have an even bigger pair." It took a few seconds before he couldn't hold in his smile. It took even less time for me to fold my Jacks and he had pocket Kings. I'll keep watching for tells and I'm going to read the book a couple of more times too.
Finally, tonight I sat down to play a Full Tilt Poker tournament (90 players) and for the 21st time this year, I made it to the final table and ended up in 4th place. I was pretty happy with that outcome. My game purpose was to get back to "basics". I tightened back up some and primarily played a range of about 15 to 20 starting hands. I raised about 30% of the time that I bet, made some good position bets, and put in some strategic bluffs that paid off. I even loosened up a couple of times to suck out on the river, which I guess you have to be able to do sometimes. Tonight, I just needed to be reminded that I could still get it done if I needed to back away from the game transformation. But then, what am I really thinking? Back away from the game transformation? Now, I have a "range" of acceptable starting hands, a calculated % of raises, strategic position bets and bluffs. My game is evolving to a mix of tight and loose, aggressive and calculated.
I have no idea where my game will go next, but I do know one thing: I'm very competitive and there is nothing that I hate worse than losing at poker. But poker energizes me, so I'll weather the losing until I start winning consistently again. Hopefully a winning streak is coming.
I began changing up my game and that brought win after win after win for weeks. But then, winning wasn't even satisfying. My game started being about something more than just winning. I had nights where I was in the money in all 3 games and I would drive home picking my bad moves a part. I had one game where I ended up with every single chip on the table, but all I could think about after a while was the game I got 2nd place in. What if I would have bet big instead of check? How did I misplay pocket A's so bad? Did I get bluffed on that one hand? Why couldn't I see the bluff? Even with an over-whelming winning percentage, something was wrong. I still wasn't good enough (and I'm still not).
Then, a series of things recently happened that turned it all upside down. I played a cash game at Winstar and lost $300 in a rushed effort with my wife waiting. Then, I went to New Orleans and played 6 hours only to lose $300 more. And last weekend, I went to Shreveport and lost $100 over several hours. Lose, lose, lose!!! I lost $700 in about a month's time, not to mention just barely breaking even in Friday Night Poker. You would think this probably didn't help matters very much, but it actually changed me.
These cash poker games are very aggressive. Sitting down with under-sized chip stacks and losing $700 over the course of about 12 hours opened my eyes to the fact that not only could I sit in there with big players, but I'm just on the cusp of being a big player myself. I feel like I'm very close and I learned that the #1 thing I'm missing is the thing I love most about poker - poker psychology.
I'm missing most of the tells and giving off most of them back to my opponents. I'm still an open book and my cards are still see-thru, but not for long. I had a chance lunch meeting with at attorney who just played in the WSOP main event and he placed in the top 10%, getting him into the money. We hit it off instantly and he recommended that I read Caro's Book of Poker Tells. In fact, he had it delivered to my office a couple of days later and I read it for the first time that night. Yes - I read it cover-to-cover that first night. I couldn't believe how badly I was crippling my game by giving off and not recognizing obvious tells.
So, last night I was playing Friday Night Poker with the guys and I spent most of the evening watching for tells. I still didn't win either game last night, but I did pick up some tells that saved me a lot of chips. One guy was sizing up his chip stack after seeing the flop. He had a good hand and I folded. He had me beat. Good fold. Another guy saw the flop and immediately glanced down at his chips - huge tell. Then, to add to it, he appeared to be indecisive as to whether or not to bet. That made up my mind to fold - good fold. He had it. Then, my favorite one took a little friendly manipulation on my part. I had pocket J's and the flop was all cards lower than jack, so was the turn. I bet fairly big and was raised on the flop and the turn. So, I said to the other guy, "I have a pretty big pocket pair, so if you're raising me, you must have an even bigger pair." It took a few seconds before he couldn't hold in his smile. It took even less time for me to fold my Jacks and he had pocket Kings. I'll keep watching for tells and I'm going to read the book a couple of more times too.
Finally, tonight I sat down to play a Full Tilt Poker tournament (90 players) and for the 21st time this year, I made it to the final table and ended up in 4th place. I was pretty happy with that outcome. My game purpose was to get back to "basics". I tightened back up some and primarily played a range of about 15 to 20 starting hands. I raised about 30% of the time that I bet, made some good position bets, and put in some strategic bluffs that paid off. I even loosened up a couple of times to suck out on the river, which I guess you have to be able to do sometimes. Tonight, I just needed to be reminded that I could still get it done if I needed to back away from the game transformation. But then, what am I really thinking? Back away from the game transformation? Now, I have a "range" of acceptable starting hands, a calculated % of raises, strategic position bets and bluffs. My game is evolving to a mix of tight and loose, aggressive and calculated.
I have no idea where my game will go next, but I do know one thing: I'm very competitive and there is nothing that I hate worse than losing at poker. But poker energizes me, so I'll weather the losing until I start winning consistently again. Hopefully a winning streak is coming.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Texas Hold'em: It Helps to Hit Good Cards
OK, so I said I was going to leave stupid at home last night when I went to play poker, and I did. Looking back on the night, I can't remember one stupid move (on my part). I was back to making calculated plays, at times even reminding myself not to play stupid. There were 9 people there last night, whereas usually we have 8. So, the card "rotation" was changed slightly. We also used 2 new decks. I'm not necessarily saying that these 2 factors had anything significant to do with the outcome of the games because we had winners in all 3 games. I'm just pointing out that we had some (minor) changes last night.
What I am saying is that sometimes even if you avoid playing stupid, you still need to get good cards at least some of the time. You need good cards in your hand with matching good cards on the board (at least sometimes). Last night, I got junk hole cards in what seemed like 80% of my hands. In statistics there is a term called "mode". This is the thing that happens most frequently - not an average - just the thing that happens more often that anything else. Well unbelievably, my "mode" cards were 2-7 off. I got that ugly combination 4 times in the 2nd game and 3 times in the 1st game. I also got 2-7 suited twice. Ordinarily that wouldn't necessarily be such a big deal because that kind of stuff happens. However, on top of getting 2 7 nine times, I also got just about every junk card combination you can think of. 8-2, 9-2, 9-3, 8-3, 6-3, and on and on and on.
An undisciplined player might get tired of folding and just start playing those cards. Believe me, it was tempting, but then what? Those are the worst statistical starting hands in poker. You could get lucky from time to time, but more often than not, you're just going to lose. I played patiently, folding one hand after another. And, I played frustrated, which like I've said before, is part of the formula to losing. I would occasionally get some decent starting hands: Q-J off, J-J, 9-10 suited, A-7 suited. Those never worked out for me though. It just wasn't my night. In Texas Hold'em, even the best players (and I am not one of those guys yet) need to get cards to at least build some momentum.
So, I got off the short-lived losing streak in game 3 with a win, but it wasn't very significant to me. Only 5 of us stayed for the final game, so I only had to deal with 4 other players instead of 8. I started hitting cards with a smaller card rotation and 1 of the guys had more than a few beers in games 1 and 2, so getting his chips wasn't the hardest thing I've ever had to do. It was a win, but it wasn't a good win.
What I am saying is that sometimes even if you avoid playing stupid, you still need to get good cards at least some of the time. You need good cards in your hand with matching good cards on the board (at least sometimes). Last night, I got junk hole cards in what seemed like 80% of my hands. In statistics there is a term called "mode". This is the thing that happens most frequently - not an average - just the thing that happens more often that anything else. Well unbelievably, my "mode" cards were 2-7 off. I got that ugly combination 4 times in the 2nd game and 3 times in the 1st game. I also got 2-7 suited twice. Ordinarily that wouldn't necessarily be such a big deal because that kind of stuff happens. However, on top of getting 2 7 nine times, I also got just about every junk card combination you can think of. 8-2, 9-2, 9-3, 8-3, 6-3, and on and on and on.
An undisciplined player might get tired of folding and just start playing those cards. Believe me, it was tempting, but then what? Those are the worst statistical starting hands in poker. You could get lucky from time to time, but more often than not, you're just going to lose. I played patiently, folding one hand after another. And, I played frustrated, which like I've said before, is part of the formula to losing. I would occasionally get some decent starting hands: Q-J off, J-J, 9-10 suited, A-7 suited. Those never worked out for me though. It just wasn't my night. In Texas Hold'em, even the best players (and I am not one of those guys yet) need to get cards to at least build some momentum.
So, I got off the short-lived losing streak in game 3 with a win, but it wasn't very significant to me. Only 5 of us stayed for the final game, so I only had to deal with 4 other players instead of 8. I started hitting cards with a smaller card rotation and 1 of the guys had more than a few beers in games 1 and 2, so getting his chips wasn't the hardest thing I've ever had to do. It was a win, but it wasn't a good win.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Lessons From Poker Boredom
I played 2 no-money full tilt poker tournaments in the last 2 days. I got 6th place out of 90 players last night and 11th tonight. 11th sucks, but the 6th was OK. In both of these tournaments, I was completely bored and uninterested. I have no idea how I made it to the final table last night and I don't know why I lasted to #11 tonight. If someone would have just played their B game early on, I probably would been gone.
I play these free tournaments during the week just so I can get some practice and see a bunch of poker hands. In doing this, I've made 18 final tables in the last 6 or so months. I know, I know - there's no money at stake in these games. I understand the implications of playing for cash. I do that weekly too. These are just for practice.
Anyways, in the last 2 nights, I played bored and uninterested for an average finish of 8.5 out of 90 (basically the top 10%). Reading players in these free, on-line poker tournaments is pretty interesting. If you're paying just a little attention, you can figure a lot out about your opponents. Chasers are the easiest to find. 2 clubs on the board, turn card is a heart - shut down. Top pair, huge bet. Check the flop, check the turn, hit your card on the river - bet. Hit your flush on the flop (while holding 9-3 of hearts) and then check to the river. Really man? Listen, I'm not one of those jerks that's going to talk trash to you for playing your game. Believe me, plenty of others will though. You just won't be too hard to beat. That's all.
The psychology of poker is my favorite part of the game and online poker can be great for picking up a players betting habits. Play several hundred or several thousand hands just to pick up on these habits and then use that understanding when you're playing in your home game. How about that - poker boredom can be educational too.
I play these free tournaments during the week just so I can get some practice and see a bunch of poker hands. In doing this, I've made 18 final tables in the last 6 or so months. I know, I know - there's no money at stake in these games. I understand the implications of playing for cash. I do that weekly too. These are just for practice.
Anyways, in the last 2 nights, I played bored and uninterested for an average finish of 8.5 out of 90 (basically the top 10%). Reading players in these free, on-line poker tournaments is pretty interesting. If you're paying just a little attention, you can figure a lot out about your opponents. Chasers are the easiest to find. 2 clubs on the board, turn card is a heart - shut down. Top pair, huge bet. Check the flop, check the turn, hit your card on the river - bet. Hit your flush on the flop (while holding 9-3 of hearts) and then check to the river. Really man? Listen, I'm not one of those jerks that's going to talk trash to you for playing your game. Believe me, plenty of others will though. You just won't be too hard to beat. That's all.
The psychology of poker is my favorite part of the game and online poker can be great for picking up a players betting habits. Play several hundred or several thousand hands just to pick up on these habits and then use that understanding when you're playing in your home game. How about that - poker boredom can be educational too.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Top 10 Starting Hands in Texas Holdem
I researched this topic using Google and found 10 web sites with articles about the 10 Best Starting Hands in Texas Holdem. You would think that the mathematical odds to this topic would determine what the 10 best hands are, but then you'd be wrong.
Everyone agrees on the best 3 starting hands: AA, KK, QQ. But that's about it. Here's my breakdown of hands 4 thru 10.
4th Best Hand - 6 people said AK suited. 4 said JJ.
5th Best Hand - 4 said AQ suited. 4 AK suited. 2 JJ.
6th Best Hand - 4 said JJ. 3 10-10. 3 AQ suited.
7th Best Hand - 6 said KQ suited. 3 AQ suited. 1 said 10-10.
8th Best Hand - 8 said AJ suited. 2 said AK off suit.
HERE'S WHERE IT GETS REALLY GOOD.
9th Best Hand - 4 said AK off suit. 2 AJ suited. 3 KJ suited. 1 KQ suited.
10th Best Hand - 3 said AK off suit. 3 said 10-10, 1 said 9-9, 2 KQ suited. 1 A-10 suited.
So, with all of that, here is my Top 10 Starting Hands in Texas Holdem.
1. AA
2. KK
3. QQ
4. AK Suited
5. JJ
6. AQ Suited
7. KQ Suited
8. 10-10
9. AK Off Suit
10. AJ Suited
I also like: KJ suited, A-10 suited, 9-9, but this is a Top 10 List.
Everyone agrees on the best 3 starting hands: AA, KK, QQ. But that's about it. Here's my breakdown of hands 4 thru 10.
4th Best Hand - 6 people said AK suited. 4 said JJ.
5th Best Hand - 4 said AQ suited. 4 AK suited. 2 JJ.
6th Best Hand - 4 said JJ. 3 10-10. 3 AQ suited.
7th Best Hand - 6 said KQ suited. 3 AQ suited. 1 said 10-10.
8th Best Hand - 8 said AJ suited. 2 said AK off suit.
HERE'S WHERE IT GETS REALLY GOOD.
9th Best Hand - 4 said AK off suit. 2 AJ suited. 3 KJ suited. 1 KQ suited.
10th Best Hand - 3 said AK off suit. 3 said 10-10, 1 said 9-9, 2 KQ suited. 1 A-10 suited.
So, with all of that, here is my Top 10 Starting Hands in Texas Holdem.
1. AA
2. KK
3. QQ
4. AK Suited
5. JJ
6. AQ Suited
7. KQ Suited
8. 10-10
9. AK Off Suit
10. AJ Suited
I also like: KJ suited, A-10 suited, 9-9, but this is a Top 10 List.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
WPT Hole Card Outcomes
I watched the final table of a recently televised World Poker Tour tournament that consisted of 6 final players. I wanted to see how often the best starting hand won the pot. The result was some fairly interesting outcomes.
I watched 38 hands in just under 2 hours.
There were 17 All-Ins in 38 hands. That's 45%, showing a very aggressive final table.
Out of 17 All-Ins, the player going all-in won 11 times (65% success rate).
8 of the all-ins (72%) were by the same player who incidentally made it to the final-2 and lost on his final all-in bet.
At least 2 players saw the flop 79% of the time. 21% of the time the winner was decided before the flop. In other words the hand was decided pre-flop 1 out of every 5 hands.
Out of the 30 hands that saw the flop, the players remaining (who hadn't folded yet) with the best starting hole cards won the pot 17 times (57% of the time).
And finally. . . .
Most interesting to me - I ranked all of the winning hole cards to find out the average winning hole cards. To do this, I ranked the cards from 1 to 13 (2=1, A=13). The average winning hole cards were. . . . .
J 8
How many times would a J 8 hold up in your home game?
I watched 38 hands in just under 2 hours.
There were 17 All-Ins in 38 hands. That's 45%, showing a very aggressive final table.
Out of 17 All-Ins, the player going all-in won 11 times (65% success rate).
8 of the all-ins (72%) were by the same player who incidentally made it to the final-2 and lost on his final all-in bet.
At least 2 players saw the flop 79% of the time. 21% of the time the winner was decided before the flop. In other words the hand was decided pre-flop 1 out of every 5 hands.
Out of the 30 hands that saw the flop, the players remaining (who hadn't folded yet) with the best starting hole cards won the pot 17 times (57% of the time).
And finally. . . .
Most interesting to me - I ranked all of the winning hole cards to find out the average winning hole cards. To do this, I ranked the cards from 1 to 13 (2=1, A=13). The average winning hole cards were. . . . .
J 8
How many times would a J 8 hold up in your home game?
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